99942 Apophis
Two centuries of motion. One orbit at a time.
Earth-distance forecast
200 years / AUJPL close approaches
Independent reference · next 200 years · within 0.5 AU
All dashboard forecasts · 200 years
Our model results, sorted by closest approach. Select an asteroid to open its full 200-year orbit. Distances are from Earth’s centre. An intersection candidate is not a confirmed impact or probability.
| Asteroid | Closest model date | Closest model distance | 200-year model result |
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How the forecast works & sources
The orbit forecast is computed here, independently, from NASA Horizons initial position and velocity vectors at a common epoch. A Newtonian N-body velocity-Verlet integrator includes the Sun, Earth and Moon separately, seven other planetary systems, and a massless asteroid. All dashboard asteroids are propagated together as massless test bodies using a shared planetary calculation. They do not exert gravity on each other. Integration uses a maximum 0.125-day step, reduced near Earth encounters; results are stored once per day. Forecasts run in a background browser worker and are cached in this browser when storage permits.
This is an experimental nominal trajectory, not an independent impact probability. It excludes orbit covariance, relativity, non-gravitational forces, and other asteroids. Errors grow over time and after close encounters; the 200-year curve is exploratory. The closest approach is refined using relative-motion interpolation within integration steps, with steps reduced to 17.28 seconds near Earth. Model-intersection candidates use Earth’s equatorial radius; they are not validated impact predictions. JPL close approaches provide a separate reference. Both distance displays use Earth’s centre. Planet and asteroid display sizes are exaggerated.
The list is ranked from Sentry's current full monitoring horizon, which may extend beyond the 200-year viewer. Impact probability is cumulative over that object's Sentry window. A potentially hazardous classification describes orbital proximity and size, not an established collision threat. Apophis is pinned for its notable 2029 flyby; NASA has ruled out an impact for at least 100 years.
Sentry risk data · Horizons initial vectors · JPL close approaches · Gravitational constants · Apophis facts